In his performance in what will be the last debate, Trump claimed that he was responsible for Covid, but then immediately said that the real culprit was China. According to Trump he did everything right and his handling of the Covid crisis has been magnificent. But Trump knew. Trump knew how deadly the virus was and how easy it was to catch it, telling Bob Woodward as much. The lack of judgement and leadership from Trump is astounding.
What is not astounding is that Biden is leading in the polls. What else would one expect when the incumbent is as incompetent as Trump is. Biden is seen as the anti-Trump. Where Trump is awful, Biden is nice. But niceness won’t necessarily prevail over a contested election. If the results of the election are anything less than a landslide win for Biden, Trump will absolutely claim to be the victim of a fraudulent process. However, even if Trump loses resoundingly, there is the real danger of a Trump lame-duck period where he may announce his intention to stay in office. He has “joked” as much. Trump could use this as a leverage to avoid prosecution.
There is a real possibility of Trump ending going to prison if he steps down from the presidency in January. This opens the possibility that he will claim the election to have been fraudulent and refuse to accept the results. That’s when the negotiating with Biden will start: a clean transfer of powers in exchange for a pardon or no prison time. And because Trump thinks of himself as a master negotiator, his instinct will be that he should get away with crime. This must be avoided at all costs. If Trump deserves prison time for tax-evasion and he is pardoned, what message would this send to the rest of us? That the powerful are above the law? This is why, after a Trump loss, the Biden camp must publicly denounce any idea of a conditional Trump exit.
Biden is favored to win, but in the unlikely scenario that Trump loses and unconditionally accepts the loss, there is still a considerable amount of time before the transfer of power in January. Trump wants to be reelected and still acts like a tinpot dictator, what will a Trump that doesn’t care about reelection do? If Trump knows that his ignominious exit could have serious personal consequences, what will Trump do with the time remaining as president? The political establishment has given Trump much leeway, but there ought to be no patience with any extreme action ordered by Trump (e.g., invade Venezuela). The situation would absolutely call for invoking the 25th Amendment and replacing Trump on the spot. A Pence President, however, could issue a blanket pardon for Trump, in exactly the same way in which Ford pardoned Nixon. But Pence should think twice, as the pardon tarnished the Republican brand for decades to come, and Republicans need desperately to recover from the Trump era.
There can be no doubt that this is indeed the most important election.