According to Trump, his people are not being hurt by the shutdown, so there’s no rush to see the shutdown end. But Trump is right about the importance of the shutdown. The shutdown is intrinsically linked to his chances of reelection in 2020. And re-election is what Trump needs to beat the statute of limitations of some of the charges against him. But the American public is not stupid and is seeing through Trump’s bluster and rightly blaming him for the shutdown. To be clear, the shutdown is all about the wall Trump wants built between the US and Mexico. And to be absolutely certain, the wall represents Trump’s entire political future.
Trump’s execrable behavior when visiting US troops (post-Christmas) should be evidence enough to anyone that the man is mentally incapable of seeing beyond his immediate gratification for adulation. That he would use the occasion to lie to the troops and to make it all about the wall would be unacceptable coming from any other politician. This is why there can be no negotiating with him on building his wall, especially as he and his supporters claim that Democrats want open borders.
Trump is not someone with whom a serious discussion can be had on the topic of immigration. Particularly as he makes his wall to be all about keeping psychotic killers out of the US. Contrary to what Trump claims, the Mexican government is not in the business of sending rapists, murderers, or drug dealers to the US. (Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, is doing a bang-up job of thwarting any and all efforts at American justice.) In any case, Mexico is not paying for the wall.
What this leaves us with is with a stalemate where the well-being of hundreds of thousands of furloughed federal employees hangs on the balance of Trump’s whim. According to Trump’s surrogates, Trump is winning the argument because the messaging has been changed to be all about Nancy Pelosi’s chances of running her agenda come January. Trump, the eternal cynic who understands that his most ardent followers believe a wall is the only solution to an existential crisis, will stand firmly on his demand for $5 billion for wall funding.
This is familiar ground for Trump, where in the past he has created situations were people with good intentions needed to cut their losses when dealing with him. Think of all the contractors he never paid. On top, Trump has frozen the salaries of federal employees. Trump is used to using people’s livelihoods as bargaining chips. Trump’s intentions are crystal clear: the shutdown hurts federal workers who (he claims) are mostly Democrats, and the public will blame Nancy Pelosi because Trump can paint her as being in favor of open borders.
To counteract Trump, Pelosi and the Democrats need to unequivocally state that they are not in favor of open borders (as Trump claims) and that the border patrol themselves, want more fencing, not a wall. Words do matter, and a fence is not a wall. The Democrats must get fully behind the construction of fencing and pull the rug from under Trump. The simple taking of the word wall away from Trump will reduce his campaign promise to the empty rhetoric it is.